Bocconi Test Negative Marking: When to Guess and When to Skip

Every year, students lose admission-relevant points on the Bocconi Online Test not because they didn't know the material, but because they handled uncertainty badly — guessing when they shouldn't, or (far more often) leaving questions blank that they should have answered. This guide covers the actual arithmetic of negative marking, so you walk in with a rule instead of a feeling.

Dates, fees and the marking scheme can change each cycle. Always confirm the current details on Bocconi's official admissions pages before you plan.

How the scoring works

The Bocconi Online Test — 50 questions in 75 minutes — is scored like this:

• Correct answer: +1 point
• Unanswered: 0 points
• Wrong answer: −0.2 points (−0.33 for the three-option Critical Thinking questions)

So a wrong answer costs you, but only a fifth of what a correct answer earns (a third, on Critical Thinking). That asymmetry is the whole story: the penalty exists to discourage pure random guessing, not to punish informed guessing. Understanding exactly where the line sits is worth real points.

The break-even maths

Suppose you answer a question with probability p of being right. Your expected score is:

EV = p × (+1) − (1 − p) × 0.2

Setting that to zero and solving gives the break-even probability:

p* = 0.2 / 1.2 ≈ 17% — about one in six.

If your odds of being right are better than roughly one in six, answering has positive expected value. Some concrete points on that curve:

Read that table again: getting a question down to a 50/50 and answering is worth, on average, almost half a correct answer. Over a 50-question test, systematically answering your "pretty sure" and "narrowed it down" questions instead of skipping them is worth multiple points — and the minimum-score rule (a total below 17 is not considered) plus the Mathematics threshold for the AI bachelor (11 of 24) mean those margins can literally decide whether your application counts.

Critical Thinking: always answer

Some Critical Thinking questions give only three answer options, and those carry the steeper −0.33 penalty. Run the same maths:

p* = 0.33 / 1.33 ≈ 25%

But guessing blindly among three options already gives you 33% — comfortably above break-even. Expected value of a completely random Critical Thinking guess: 0.33 × 1 − 0.67 × 0.33 ≈ +0.11 points. The conclusion is unusual but solid: on Critical Thinking, never leave a blank, even if you have no idea. The format's own arithmetic is on your side.

(The same holds for any Critical Thinking question carrying the standard −0.2 penalty instead: a blind choice between three or four options clears the 17% bar comfortably.)

A simple test-day rule

1. Know it or can narrow it down → answer. Eliminating even one or two options puts you well past break-even.
2. Critical Thinking → always answer, no exceptions.
3. Total blackout → pick one and move on. Bocconi doesn't publish how many options the non–Critical Thinking questions carry, so nobody can quote you exact odds on a blind guess. You don't need them: break-even sits at roughly one in six, and a blind choice among any realistic number of options lands at or above that. A guess is at worst neutral. What a hopeless question genuinely costs you is time — so answer it, don't agonise over it, and spend the seconds where they can still change your score.
4. Don't let the penalty change your pacing. The bigger score-killer on this test is time management, not wrong answers: −0.2 is a small price; the 90-seconds-per-question clock is the real opponent.

Why this matters more than it seems

Your test score is 55% of the admission decision (the other 45% is GPA), and you can sit the test up to four times per academic year at €60 per attempt. A guessing strategy isn't a marginal trick — it's a repeatable edge you carry into every attempt, and it stacks with everything else you prepare. Students who internalise the break-even rule reliably pick up points that skippers leave on the table, on identical knowledge.

For the full picture of the test — sections, timing, minimum scores and the application rounds — see our complete guide to the Bocconi Online Test.